The Korean Republic of China

September 11, 2008 by Jonathan Movroydis | Filed Under China 

Without a definitive, albeit qualified successor, a committee of Chinese trained generals are poised to succeed the erratic, rogue, and ailing Kim Jong-Il, a prospect, which Gordon Chang argues, would seal the fate for the full democratization and unification of the Korean peninsula:

A collective military government would be a natural result of Kim Jong Il’s demise. Although he began in the 1980s to purge North Korean officials friendly to the Chinese, Beijing has for more than a decade cultivated Kim’s generals, some of whom now keep their personal assets in China. Moreover, at lower levels the links between the Korean People’s Army and the People’s Liberation Army are relatively strong, especially because junior officers are suspected of conducting unsavory business across their nations’ common border. In any event, it is Chinese aid that sustains Kim’s military, which “could neither bark nor bite” without Beijing. China provides some 90 percent of the North’s oil, 80 percent of its consumer goods, and 45 percent of its food.

The Chinese are so confident of their links to Korea that they have recently spurned initiatives from Seoul to talk about what to do in case of instability in the North. The turndown is an indication that Beijing does not believe it will have to implement its plans to send a military force south, establish order, and either annex the DPRK or, more probably, leave behind a compliant government. After all, it has already lined up its supporters in Pyongyang and sees little reason to either share information or let any other nation have access in the case of an emergency.

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