ABC Poll: Obama 53, McCain 43

October 12, 2008 by John H. Taylor | Filed Under Election 2008 

The Moderate Voice:

Powered chiefly by the public’s economic concerns, Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in this ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936.

Still, Obama’s lead depends upon a shift in basic partisanship that will need to stand the test of turnout come Nov. 4. And while movable voters – those who haven’t definitely made up their minds – have inched down to 13 percent, that’s still more than enough to change the shape of the race.

In other words: all of the conventional wisdom you read from pundits and on weblogs (such as this one), and all of the self-assured pundits you see on TV could still be proven wrong. But the odds are against it.

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