Two Dogs Fighting Under a Carpet

November 11, 2008 by Paul Saunders | Filed Under Nixon Center, Russia 

Winston Churchill once famously described watching Soviet politics from the outside as “like watching two dogs fighting under a carpet.”  It’s clear that something is happening, but it’s hard to tell what.  Much the same is the case today in the complex relationship between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, his predecessor and subordinate, President-turned-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and their respective supporters.

When Medvedev took office this spring, some argued that he and Putin would genuinely share power (something the Russian government also said, noting their constitutional division-of-labor).  Others suggested that the relatively liberal-sounding Medvedev could gradually rule on his own or, alternatively, that Putin would continue to dominate Moscow from his new post.  This debate had barely settled down when the Russian-Georgian war seemed to shift Russian domestic politics strongly in Putin’s favor, empowering the Prime Minister–who flew to Russia’s North Caucasus to supervise–and his supporters in the security services.  Then, again almost immediately, Russia plunged into financial crisis, with the stock market losing two-thirds of its value and many so-called oligarchs looking for the Kremlin’s version of a bailout.  And Medvedev’s market-oriented minions seemed to have regained some lost ground.

Now, Medvedev is calling for constitutional changes to extend the Russian president’s term from four to six years.  Government spokesmen claim that the change would not apply to Medvedev during his current term, but only to whomever serves the next term.  Moscow conspiracy theorists interpret this in multiple ways, but one of the leading theories is that Medvedev will remain in office only long enough to pass the measure and then resign–making Putin the acting president and almost ensuring his immediate election as president.  What’s really happening?  Who knows?  But something must be going on under there.

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