Nixon Center President In Time Magazine

October 31, 2009 by Jonathan Movroydis | Filed Under News media, Nixon Center, Russia, The National Interest 

Nixon Center President Dmitri Simes has a new op-ed in Time Magazine, in which he argues that the Obama administration needs to make talking with Russia a priority in order to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions:

The U.S. needs to start taking Russia seriously if it wants Moscow’s help on Iran. The Administration insists that its “reset” of relations with Russia is a major priority. Unfortunately, as in many other policy areas, the President and his team try so hard to satisfy their critics that they appear unwilling to make critical choices, doing just enough to raise hopes but not enough to realize them. The Administration, for example, announced in mid-September that it was unilaterally dropping plans to base advanced missile-defense interceptors in Poland and the Czech Republic. Critics said Obama had given away the East European store to Russia in the vague hope of getting assistance on Iran. But a month later, literally on the same day that the U.S., Russia and others were negotiating with Iran in Vienna, Vice President Joe Biden was in Warsaw confirming plans to deploy Patriot ground-to-air missiles in Poland, and a U.S. official said in Tbilisi that “the process of Georgia’s deeper integration into NATO is very important.” No statement was likely to trouble Russia more.

The following weekend, when Obama called Medvedev to look for support on Iran, he received a polite but noncommittal reply. After the call, Russia’s top negotiator, Sergei Ryabkov, publicly urged “maximum patience” and “additional incentives” for Iran, neither of which is attractive to Washington. A senior official in Moscow told me that if the U.S. permanently stations Patriot batteries in Poland, Russia may proceed with deliveries — which had been suspended — of S-300 antiaircraft missiles to Iran. Such systems could significantly increase the cost of any air strikes. “Obama is beginning to repeat the Bush pattern,” the official said, “where deeds do not match words.”

Working with Russia to block Iran’s nuclear program will not be easy. Obama will have to do much better than he did when trying to win Russian support for Chicago’s Olympic bid: he called Putin two days before the crucial vote, when Moscow was already committed to Rio, and offered nothing in return to the rather unsentimental Russian Prime Minister. Sadly, this too little, too late approach to Moscow on Iran’s nuclear program may force the Administration to make precisely the decision it hopes to avoid: between a nuclear Iran and a new and dangerous war in a critical region.

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